The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) has issued an advisory highlighting the potential impacts of developing El Niño conditions over South Africa during the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027.
El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Although it occurs far from South Africa, it can influence weather patterns across Southern Africa and is often linked to below-normal rainfall, higher temperatures and an increased risk of drought in some regions.
According to the advisory, South Africa could experience a range of climate-related challenges, including reduced water availability, pressure on agricultural production, increased wildfire risk, strain on energy systems and impacts on municipal services. Vulnerable communities may also face greater food security challenges if dry conditions persist. The advisory further warns of an increase in the number of extremely hot days and heatwaves.
Current risks remain relatively low during July and August 2026, with existing water resources generally remaining adequate. However, the risk level is expected to increase during September as seasonal conditions transition. The period from October to December 2026 is currently considered the highest-risk period, with an increased likelihood of reduced rainfall and extreme heat should El Niño conditions continue to strengthen. Potential impacts could persist into the first quarter of 2027 if rainfall deficits continue.
To reduce the potential impacts of these conditions, the advisory encourages proactive planning and preparation. Recommended actions include monitoring water resources, implementing conservation measures, strengthening wildfire prevention and response efforts, supporting drought mitigation initiatives and maintaining public awareness campaigns. Communities are also encouraged to stay informed through official weather and disaster management updates.
The National Disaster Management Centre emphasises that preparedness measures implemented before severe impacts occur can significantly reduce losses and improve resilience. As a result, all sectors are encouraged to remain alert and continue monitoring official forecasts and advisories throughout the coming months.
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